Motivated Navy is a harmful underdog for resurgent Military

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Military is on the march below head coach Jeff Monken.

Nothing higher exemplifies how far the Black Knights have trekked than Saturday’s level unfold within the annual rivalry sport towards Navy (CBS, Three p.m.). Military will shut close to a 7-point favourite on this common betting attraction … the primary time it’s been favored over Navy since 2001!

It did take two shedding seasons earlier than Monken obtained everybody in formation. His Cadets now have posted profitable data straight up (SU) and towards the unfold (ATS) for 3 straight years:

Military on the march

12 monthsSUATS
20168-57-6
201710-37-6
20189-26-4-1

Most significantly, these data embody:

  • Two straight wins over Navy. Final 12 months, Military (+2¹/₂) received outright in a 14-13 gut-check. Two seasons in the past, Military (+5 ¹/₂) coated by greater than a landing in a 21-17 victory.
  • Two straight bowl victories. Previous to Monken’s arrival, Military had performed in solely two bowl video games complete from 1989 to 2015. Final 12 months, Military (+6¹/₂) upset San Diego State within the Armed Forces Bowl, 42-35. After the 2016 season, Military (-10¹/₂) received, however didn’t cowl, in a 38-31 win over North Texas within the Coronary heart of Dallas Bowl.

Military will play in its third straight bowl sport for the primary time ever towards Houston within the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Value on Dec. 22. Military opened as a 3-point favourite.

Whereas the Military story is worthy of celebration — and the athletes on all armed forces soccer groups are worthy of admiration — handicappers and bettors ought to be cautious of how costs are altering with the Cadets. It’s one factor to catch individuals without warning as you’re bettering. It’s fairly one other to cowl level spreads after everyone has observed the advance.

Military has been a feisty underdog throughout this three-season surge. The Cadets are 2-1 ATS as ’canine this season, after going 5-2 ATS final season, and 3-2 ATS in 2016. That’s 10-5 ATS (57 %).

Our chart totaled to 20-16-1 ATS general throughout that stretch. Which means Military is simply 10-11-1 as chalk (Vegas slang for favorites, as a result of level spreads was once written on chalk boards). It’s one thing to think about when you’re fascinated with backing Military as favorites versus Navy or Houston.

For Navy, that is the bowl sport. There can be no postseason, with 9 losses already on the deck log. However, the Midshipmen have regarded a lot sharper in latest motion. Navy enters with three straight point-spread covers, together with a 35-24 loss to Central Florida that appears a lot better now given UCF’s subsequent wins by 25 over Cincinnati, 28 over South Florida, and 15 over Memphis. And that was earlier than the harm to UCF star quarterback McKenzie Milton.

Bettors should consider whether or not much-improved Military is about to march into an ambush towards a motivated underdog with double-revenge that wishes to finish its season with a rivalry upset.

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